There’s been much hyperbole surrounding the “UKIP Earthquake”. With the BBC (when it is not seriously breaching editorial independence) going overboard in repeating Nigel Farage’s claims that the party’s topping of the UK Euro polls is the biggest political event in 100 years.
Well it isn’t.
If you look at the full percentage of the vote breakdown, all UKIP have managed to do is round up people who are:
1) Likely to vote in Euro elections
2) Disillusioned with politics
3) Broadly on the right / extreme right of politics
Rather than taking hundreds of thousands of votes from Tories and Labour, they have taken votes from the BNP, the Christian Alliance and other fringe right wing / anti-EU parties / independents.
This chart of party vote percentages sets out the situation in more detail:
What it reveals is that the combined independent / neo-fascist / Christian / anti-EU vote was 29.8% in 2009 and 32.2% in 2014. So roughly only taking a couple of percentage points off the Tories.
The more significant shift is how Labour has regained supporters from those who voted Lib Dem in the 2009/2010 electoral period.
And that the ‘centre and left progressive’ vote which was 30.7% in 2009 as the Brown government staggered toward the end of days (42.2% including Greens / SNP / PC) has also taken votes from independents and actually grown to 32.4% (43.5%).
So it isn’t that more people have joined the extremes of British politics – it’s just that UKIP forged them into an unholy alliance. And that the mainstream media has decided a pint wielding MEP is a more palatable poster boy to give acres of media coverage to than previous incarnations of the same politics.
Data sources available on this Google Doc.
Ramblings Of A PR 
daffid
27/05/2014
Nice graphic, can we see 2004 and 1999 (when Ukip first surfaced) as well?
John F
27/05/2014
UKIP won. In a result that can’t be spun away. They won by a third of a million votes over the Westminster opposition. And by raising their share of the vote by over 10%. However good Labour’s rise of 9.9% is, UKIP still beat them in votes, seats and swing.
The other numbers are very interesting too, though. Lib Dems annihilated and beaten by the Greens.
In Northern Ireland, the charismatic Jim Allister was running on a better off out platform, but UKIP, largely from nowhere in NI still got a third of Jim Allister’s votes and 5 times what the Conservatives got (incidentally there were apparently more spoilt ballots than votes for Mark Brotherston).
However, the turnout belies the fact that the Euro election is largely legislatively irrelevant. The real power in the EU is in the Council of Ministers, which is made up of ministers from the member nation governments and the Commission, whose members are nominated by member nation governments. The ‘normal, non-racist voters’ were obviously so appalled by UKIP that they didn’t bother to even vote against them.
Mark Steyn has an interesting analysis comparing all the nationalist parties being returned to the European Parliament to the nationalist parties of the UK. http://www.steynonline.com/6373/kippers-and-curtains
Fourthletter58 (@Fourthletter58)
27/05/2014
The Conservatives have never been an electoral force in NI, where are you from?
daffid
27/05/2014
On another point, why do you put Labour to the right of the Liberals? On 2009 policies that might be right, but bit unusual, especially in time of coalition, would be clearer if you swapped them. But thanks for the info anyway.
On John’s point above there is no evidence whatsoever that the turnout was higher among UKIP supporters than any other group, or that party percentages would have been significantly different with a 70% turnout. In fact the polling put UKIP further ahead than the result, which is consistent with the common phenomenon when a party has a clear lead and their supporters know it’s in the bag and don’t bother to come out. And for a party that is relatively new and therefore has ‘soft-support’, plus smaller infrastructure and less people to go knocking and rally the troops.
The Lib/Dem ‘annihilation’ is no worse than 1989 when they were whipped by the Greens, and this time with more obvious cause (the unpopularity of being in govt.). Again no evidence that it’s a longer term trend.
Mark D Graham
27/05/2014
Tell me what UKrap have won? MEP seats? the only thing they have won is campaign funding. They are hugely outnumbered in the EU voting by Pro-EU MEPs. They won ZERO Councils in England (a feat beaten by the barely existing BNP). All they can do is bang drums. They will be outvoted in everything in Europe and in reality people will see what these buffoons are opposed to and realise what a mistake they made and condemn them to ignominy like the LibDems. Labour made significant gains all round. However, the BEST thing is that all the nasty racist arseholes are now shouting openly and we know who they are. Do it to me face to face and the only thing you’ll learn is you need the NHS that you’re hoping to shut. Take on this tolerant white English man at your physical peril.
Rick Cain
27/05/2014
If the EU elections are largely irrelevant, doesn’t that make the EU irrelevant, and why are we in it in the first place then? Perhaps UKIP is right after all.
thisyearinmusic
27/05/2014
Good piece. I agree with you about the Beeb’s coverage. The results are still worrying, but at least its not as bad as originally thought.
Boris Watch (@BorisWatch)
27/05/2014
There was me thinking my ‘hang on, UKIP are just the BNP plus two percent’ realisation was London only.
If you start looking in more detail in London that 2% is an average – bigger in Tory boroughs and smaller in Labour boroughs. Conclusion: UKIP aren’t taking votes from Labour, they’re sweeping up the Euronutter parties into one easy-to-manage nutterbundle and adding a sprinkling of angry Tories.
Steve Adams (@sadams_s)
28/05/2014
Hi,
Really nicely made point and simple to understand graph.
I’d be interested in actual numbers of votes (as well as/alongside percentages).